The big picture: The story of Copilot+ PCs serves as a reminder of the challenges inherent in introducing new architectures to an established market. While the potential for AI-enhanced computing is undeniable, the path to widespread adoption may be longer and more complex than wishful marketing claims.
Microsoft has been aggressively promoting its Copilot+ PCs since their launch in May. The tech giant's marketing campaign includes a five-second clip declaring these devices are "The fastest, most intelligent Windows PCs ever." This bold claim has been challenged by users though.
A Community Note attached to a promotional post by Microsoft on X points out that Copilot+ PCs, which exclusively use Snapdragon processors, fall short in raw computing power compared to high-end systems equipped with Intel or AMD chips. This performance gap is especially noticeable in demanding applications and gaming scenarios, where the Arm-based architecture of Snapdragon processors struggles with compatibility issues.
The fastest, most intelligent Windows PCs ever
– Windows (@Windows) November 7, 2024
Despite ambitious forecasts from manufacturers like Qualcomm, suggesting that Arm PCs could capture 50 percent of the Windows PC market within five years, current market data paints a different picture. In the third quarter of 2024, the first full quarter of Copilot+ PC availability, sales of these devices represented only a fraction of overall laptop shipments, according to Mercury Research data.
Research firms have been hesitant to provide specific figures for Copilot+ PC sales, instead grouping them with other AI PC laptops featuring Intel Core Ultra 200V and AMD Ryzen AI 300 chips. Even this broader category accounted for less than 10 percent of total shipments.
The push for Arm processors in PCs gained momentum following Apple's successful integration of M-series chips into MacBooks in 2020. The primary selling point has been exceptional energy efficiency, with Snapdragon X-powered PCs promising battery life measured in days rather than hours.
However, in the years and months it's taken Qualcomm and Microsoft to put together the "AI PC," Intel and AMD have significantly closed the gap in battery performance with their x86 processors. Recent reviews suggest that the latest offerings from the traditional PC chipmakers now achieve battery life comparable to their Arm-based counterparts.
The most significant hurdle for Copilot+ PCs based on the Arm architecture are compatibility issues with many productivity applications and games (or slower performance due to a necessary emulation layer). Furthermore, some of the advanced AI features touted by Microsoft, such as the controversial Windows Recall, are not yet available on Copilot+ PCs. The company cites ongoing privacy and security concerns as reasons for the delay, but ultimately it means that early adopters don't have access to the full suite of promised capabilities.
Surely there's still an audience for Copilot+ PCs. For those focused primarily on basic productivity tasks and web-based applications, the devices can present a compelling package, even if you don't have much use for the NPU. However, for users requiring maximum performance or broad software compatibility, traditional x86-based systems from Intel and AMD continue to hold the advantage. While innovative in some respects, the current generation of Copilot+ PCs fall short of the revolutionary promise suggested by Microsoft's marketing.